Post 7

            It is often said that those who prepare for the worst will succeed more than those who expect the best every time. Similarly, in the modern age with countless innovations and endless research, it is important that humans place important emphasis on developing a method that would prevent unintended consequences or failure. Intelligent trial and error is the best way to ensure that, “the ratio of good to bad” (69) is high and there is more benefit for the world than harm.

            Intelligent trial and error should be implemented on all levels of innovation, particularly on those that could potentially impact the environment or other people. The first example of a situation in which intelligent trial and error was not applied and resulted in danger to health would be lead paint. From the image below one can see that before 1940, 87% of homes built were painted with lead paint, between 1940 and 1959, 69% of homes had lead paint, and between 1960 and 1977 24% of homes had it. Many died due to lead poisoning either by inhaling the toxic fumes over time, or if the lead entered the water flow because it was corroding from the pipes. A simple trial and error test could have prevented many deaths and kept the overall population safer.

http://www2.epa.gov/lead/protect-your-family

Another example of where intelligent trial and error testing could have prevented consequences is with Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). CFCs were once often used as propellants in aerosol cans; however, scientists noticed that the ozone layer was becoming weaker at a faster rate. Scientists realized that CFCs in aerosol cans were the cause of this rapid increase, and when the Montreal Protocol came into force in 1989, CFCs were replaced in nearly every country due to the negative effects. If the scientists and engineers had collaborated and used trial and error testing while offering their respective inputs, this situation could easily have been prevented and our ozone layer, which protects us from harmful ultraviolet rays, would be stronger than it is today.

Based on examples from history and personal experience, the majority of consequences can be prevented by intelligent trial and error testing. From the examples above, it easy to realize that trial and error testing is effective and efficient given the proper investment of time and money. Despite the “three main pitfalls” (70) of trial and error testing, it is still the best option for preventing disasters and unintended consequences for humans and the environment.